Friday, September 28, 2012

"Most Likely": Week 5

Here is my weekly “Most Likely” weekend preview of my top 15 teams. 


Anyone looking for picks, I have decided to call it quits on those posts for a while.  I will start back-up next week with a new format (yet to be determined).   

I do just want to take a second and brag on the fact that I did call the Oklahoma loss last week.  Check the post here

Let’s get to it!

Get upset: (9) TEXAS – I am not at all sold yet on the new look Longhorns.  They have had some good showings this year against Ole Miss and New Mexico.  However, that’s Ole Miss and New Mexico, not the most quality of opponents.  Plus this game is at night in Stillwater, against a Cowboys team with something to prove.  This game is ripe for an upset.

Pull the starters in the 2nd quarter:  (2) OREGON – The Ducks looked like the best team in the nation last week with their route of a quality Arizona squad.  I see them continuing that trend this week against Washington State who hasn't held an opponent to less than 20 points all season.  Look for Oregon to outscore that number is the first quarter.  

Look worse than their ranking: (13) CLEMSON – Over the past few years, Clemson has been a team that has been able to get-up for big games, but has struggled to maintain that high after (See Auburn in 2009 and GT in 2010).  I see this being another one of those occasions.  They pull out the win, but struggle to get things going early.  Also, their best player Sammy Watkins is out for the game with an illness. 

Look better than their ranking: (5) WEST VIRGINIA – The mountaineers come to play in their first BIG 12 game.  Plus, this game is in Morgantown.  This game might not be the biggest of blowouts, but WVU will look good in the win over a pretty good Baylor team.   

Climb into the top 15: TCU – With the Stanford loss already, we know that there will be movement within the rankings next week and by default TCU looks to be primed to jump in.  However, I’m not yet sold on this team and don’t by any means think they are the 3rd best team in the BIG 12.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Power Rankings: Week 4


The Dallas Hokie Power Rankings - Week 4

1)     Alabama (4-0) (Prev. 1)
2)     Oregon (4-0) (2)
3)     Georgia (4-0) (4)
4)     Florida State (4-0) (6)
5)     West Virginia (3-0) (5)
6)     Louisiana State (4-0) (3)
7)     South Carolina (4-0) (9)
8)     Kansas State (4-0) (10)
9)     Texas (3-0) (13)
10)   Ohio State (4-0) (11)
11)   Stanford (4-0) (14)
12)   Southern California (3-1) (15) 
13)   Clemson (3-1) (8)
14)   Florida (4-0) (NR)
15)   Notre Dame (4-0) (NR)

Dropped From Rankings: Michigan (12), Oklahoma (7)

On the verge (in no particular order) - TCU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Louisville

As we get into the heart of the season, it looks like there are 8 teams that have pulled away from the pack.  It will be interesting to see how they continue to fare as the season goes on. 

LSU dropped out of the top 5 this week as they struggled at Auburn.  Also, Florida State jumped West Virginia after beating Clemson.  There were also some minor switching spaces further down as Texas jumped Ohio State. 

Florida and Notre Dame both made their first appearance in the poll at 14th and 15th.  

Clemson is the third team to remain in the rankings after losing (Michigan vs Alabama and USC @ Stanford).  

Friday, September 21, 2012

"Most Likely": Week 4 Preview

Here is my weekly “Most Likely” weekend preview, where I ask 5 questions of my top 15 teams.  As a review here are the dallashokie Power Rankings: Week 3.

Also, my picks against the spread went up earlier today.  Check them out here.  

Note: Preface each statement with “The team most likely to…”


Get upset (must be a 10+ point line): (7) OKLAHOMA – Kansas State, with a year under their belt of actually being a good team, brings it this week.  Plus, they will be out for revenge after the shellacking they took last year to the Sooners.  And hey, I get some major brownie points from mrs. dallas hokie every time I speak ill of those land thieves.  And look, its her two favorite people (kinda). You gotta love that '93 Holiday Bowl Jacket.  Go Pokes!  



Pull the starters in the 2nd quarter:  (1) ALABAMA – This is an easy one.  After the beat down they put on Arkansas last week, I don’t see anything different happening this week. 


Look worse than their ranking: (4) GEORGIA – Georgia being here is more of a testament to how well I think Vanderbilt plays in this game.  I am still really high on the Bulldogs, but from what I’ve seen they haven’t had the shut-down defense that blows teams out.  Georgia still wins, but struggles more than expected in the process. Note: I would have chosen Notre Dame here, but I was already down on them earlier this week by not putting them in the DH Top 15. 

Look better than their ranking: (6) FLORIDA STATE – I am starting to think that FSU might actually have the team that people have been projecting for the past 3 years.  FSU shows the world on Saturday night that they are here to play and wins big over Clemson

Climb into the top 15: FLORIDA – The gators are here for the second straight week after getting jumped by Texas.  They are right on the verge and should move in this week with a win and a loss in front of them.

Also check out some of my favorite Hokie blogs here:


Picks: Week 4


We are a quarter of the way through the season, and I still haven’t been able to manage a winning week.  My picks straight up have been pretty good, but for some reason I can’t seem to hit it right on many games against the spread.  Going into this week I am at a whopping 33% (4-8) and hoping for something better.  Here are nine picks for you this week, with the usual star by my favorites.  

You should probably just assume the opposite of all these...

Arizona State +21.5 over Oregon – Oregon has been known to let teams back into games late.  Look for ASU to bring this one within a few scores. 

FSU -14 over Clemson – FSU’s defense looks incredible and they are playing a team that struggled with a bad Auburn club.  Look for FSU to go up big early.

Kansas State +15.5 over Oklahoma – I think K-State remembers the beat down they got last year from OU and comes out seeking revenge.  The sooners win a close one at home.

*Michigan +6 over Notre Dame – Here I go picking Michigan again, but I really think that Michigan is better than people think.  Plus, I am not sold on ND.  Michigan wins on a big day from Denard.   Here is a little reminder for how great this game was last year.  Also, listen to some great announcing from the BTN.  Dude says "G. O. N. N. Gone!" and " Liters of Fun!"



*Georgia Tech -14 over Miami – GT throttled UVA last week at home and is playing a much worse Miami team this week.  Miami just doesn’t have the talent any more to compete. 

*UTEP +18 over Wisconsin – Wisconsin has struggled to score all season and are starting a freshman at QB this week for the first time.  They are averaging less than 18 points per game!  Much less beating people by that much.  Plus UTEP showed us in week 1 that they can play with anyone.  Wisconsin wins, but not by 18.

*UVA +18 over TCU – TCU had a rough go of it with Kansas last week and I think UVA bounces back.  TCU wins a close one in Fort Worth. 

Penn State -7.5 over Temple – I think that Penn State finally got their act together last week against Navy.  They show up to play in Happy Valley and win big.  

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Power Rankings: Week 3


The Dallas Hokie Power Rankings - Week 3

1)     Alabama (Prev. 1)
2)     Oregon (3)
3)     LSU (4)
4)     Georgia (5)
5)     West Virginia (6)
6)     Florida State (7)
7)     Oklahoma (8)
8)     Clemson (9)
9)     South Carolina (10)
10)   Kansas State (13)
11)   Ohio State (14)
12)   Michigan (15)
13)   Texas (NR)
14)   Stanford (NR)
15)   USC (2) 

Dropped From Rankings: Virginia Tech (12), Michigan State (11)

On the verge (in no particular order) - TCU, Notre Dame, Florida

Three teams in the top 15 lost this week, with USC, Virginia Tech and Michigan State all falling to lower ranked teams.  VT and MSU both dropped out of the rankings and USC fell all the way to 15 right behind Stanford.  Texas also jumped in this week with their big win over Ole Miss.   The rest of top 10 remained in the same order, with every team but Alabama moving up a spot.  Alabama is clearly the #1 team in the nation after their performance this week and the loss by USC.  The top 10 is really starting to pull away from the pack, with every team winning big this week.  As the season moves on, look to see which of these teams fall and which can survive and move on. 

Friday, September 14, 2012

"Most Likely": Week 3

Here is Version 2 of my weekly “Most Likely” weekend preview, where I ask 5 questions of my top 15 teams.  As a review here are the dallas hokie PowerRankings: Week 2.

Note: Preface each statement with “The team most likely to…”

Get upset (must be a 10+ point line): ALABAMA– Remember, this is the big upset category and that is what it would be if Arkansas one this game.  But just remember a few things, Arkansas was a top 10 team coming into this game and they are playing at home.  Alabama might actually overlook Arkansas this week and give them a chance. 

Pull the starters in the 2nd quarter:  OREGON - This was actually a tough choice this week, with so many top teams playing some pretty easy games.  However, I chose Oregon because they are one of the most explosive teams in the NCAA and are playing a FCS team travelling across 3 time zones.   

Look worse than their ranking: FLORIDA STATE – Look for FSU to come out rocky in their first game against decent competition.  Plus, this is an ACC game, and you can usually count on those games to be closer than expected.  Plus Wake is coming off of an impressive and unexpected win against UNC and has beaten FSU 4 out of the last 6.  FSU wins but looks sloppy in the process.

Look better than their ranking: USC – I know they are currently ranked #2 (and have been all season in my book), but I think that this week they put pressure on Alabama for that #1 spot and get a few additional votes.  I think Alabama is in a no-win situation this week in that they are playing a pretty tough team that no one is expecting to be very good. 

Climb into the top 15: FLORIDA – I have the gators winning at Tennessee this week and think they jump a few spots with the win.  

Picks: Week 3

After another poor performance last week, lets see if I can get back on track this week.  I have nine picks this week.  We finally have few top 25 matchups to preview after just 2 in the first 2 weeks combined.  

Also, I just want to brag on mrs. dallas hokie before I get going.  Yesterday, I was asking her opinions on these games just to see what she was thinking.  I started with the TCU Kansas game and asked her, "how much do you think TCU wins by?" Her response, "3 TDS" ... (see the 21 pt spread below).  I giggle a bit but don't really think anything of it.  I then ask her "how much do you think Georgia Tech wins by?" Her response this time "oh... a touchdown and a field goal" and I'm amazed (see the 10 pt spread below).  Way to go girl, you should go to Vegas! 


* Virginia Tech -10 over Pitt – Pitt has looked terrible this season.  While I think that they probably will stay close early (because VT is notorious for letting teams stay in the game early).  However, I think VT pulls away late and wins by 3 scores. 

Alabama -20 over Arkansas – I had this as Arkansas covering until I heard this morning that Tyler Wilson won't play.  Because of that, Alabama wins big.  

USC -8.5 over Stanford – While USC has had some scares an upsets in Palo Alto in the past, I think this one is different.  USC wins big.

* Michigan State -6 over Notre Dame – ND hasn’t impressed this season and MSU is probably the best team in the Big10.  MSU by a TD. 

Florida +3 over Tennessee – Florida impressed me last week with their win in College Station and I think they win again in Knoxville.  Florida covers and wins.

Wake +28 over FSU – That is way too many points for the unpredictable ACC.  FSU still wins big, but not by more than 28.

Georgia Tech -10 over Virginia – UVA looked sloppy in their win over Penn State last week and won’t be able to slow down Georgia Tech’s running game.  Plus the game is in Atlanta. 

* TCU -21 over Kansas – Kansas is as bad as usual and loses big to Big12 newcomer TCU.

* Northwestern -3.5 over Boston College – Here is your bonus pick of the week.  I don’t know how this line is this close.  Northwestern has beaten Syracuse and Vanderbilt already this year, two teams that are comparable to BC.  Plus this game is in Evanston.  Wildcats by a TD.

Click on the picks page for weeks 1 and 2.  

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Notre Dame to the ACC


This morning it was announced that Notre Dame is going to join the ACC in all “non-football sports”, or should I say all money sucking sports plus basketball.  Anyways, joking aside, I think this is a good move for the ACC and here are 4 reasons why.

1) Any association with Notre Dame is good publicity.  Notre Dame is one of the most respected and admired schools in the country.  Before you go all crazy on me hear me out.  This isn’t because they are the best school or have the best athletic department or are particularly relevant recently; it’s actually just a simple issue of supply and demand? Any chance you remember learning that in college? Well, that is what is happening here.  Notre Dame has been and will continue to be the most demanded school in college sports solely because no one can have them. They're football program is "not for sale". And, this has caused their value to soar through the roof.  Today, that value remains high because no conference (including the ACC) has yet to “own” their football program.  But, they do have their other sports and 50 million+ buyout.  The ACC will have the Notre Dame association for a long time and Notre Dame will continue to be valuable making the ACC more valuable. 

2) The addition of Notre Dame will bring in more money.  I saw it written today that the ACC expects each team to earn an extra 1-2 million dollars by adding the Irish.  I’d do that in a heartbeat! I would bet that money could be well used in funding a few cool new facilities around campus or to pay a top level coach.  More money is always good and will be good for the schools in the ACC.

3) The ACC will get to play Notre Dame five times each year in football.  A game with Notre Dame is a huge coup for any school and will draw a lot of media attention to the ACC.  I do realize that this is really only one more game per year for the ACC, but the best part is that teams like Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Tech will get a chance to play another nationally televised game.  Also, many lesser teams will have a chance to host the Irish, dramatically increasing average ticket sales for non-conference games. 

4) Non-football sports will be better.  Notre Dame has been traditionally good in many sports, particularly men’s and women’s basketball, women’s soccer and lacrosse.  The addition of another quality opponent will both help current ACC schools to perform better as well as increase the public perception of the ACC overall.

Monday, September 10, 2012

The Eye Test: Week 2 Reaction

College football these days is all about perception.  Come the end of the season people will be asking things like how bad was that loss? And, how good was that win? A decision in the minds of the voters will have to be made as to which team “looks” the best and those perceptions are already being built in this young season. Thus, it is so incredibly important for conferences to perform well and for teams to win big and not struggle.  You have to pass the "eye test".

In this post, I’m not going to talk about how good Alabama or LSU or the SEC look, because they are already at the top of public perception.  Nor am I going to talk about how bad the Big East looks, because well everyone expects that.  I want to point out some trends that I think will be important to keep an eye on as time progresses. 

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Picks: Week 2 Reaction

With week two in the books, the craziness of college football is once again evident.  My picking ability this week seemed to reflect that un-predictability.  After struggling in week one, I went 3-5 overall and 1-3 on my confidence picks.  Check out the original post here.  

Power Rankings: Week 2

The Dallas Hokie Power Rankings - Week 2

1)     Alabama (Prev. 1)
2)     USC (2) 
3)     Oregon (3)
4)     LSU (4)
5)     Georgia (5)
6)     West Virginia (6)
7)     Florida State (8)
8)     Oklahoma (9)
9)     Clemson (10)
10)   South Carolina (11)
11)   Michigan State (12)
12)   Virginia Tech (13)
13)   Kansas State (NR)
14)   Ohio State (NR)
15)   Michigan (15)

Dropped From Rankings: Arkansas (7), Nebraska (14)

On the verge (in no particular order) – Texas, TCU

This past week we saw our first dose of upsets, with Arkansas, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State losing.  With those loses Ohio State and Kansas State both jumped into the standings, passing Michigan due to their close call to Air Force.  Other than a that, there were limited changes, with teams just moving up 1 spot or remaining in their same position.  

Friday, September 7, 2012

NFL Preseason Picks

With the NFL season about to get underway (it actually already started but whatever), I wanted to get my Division winners, wild card, and super bowl predictions up on the blog.  Also, I’m being a huge homer here and picking my Cowboys!

AFC:
East: New England
South: Houston
North: Baltimore
West: Denver
Wild Card: San Diego & Buffalo

NFC:
East: Dallas
South: Atlanta
North: Green Bay
West: San Francisco
Wild Card: Philadelphia & Chicago

Super Bowl: Dallas over Houston

"Most Likely": Week 2

I've got a new weekly post I’m starting this week called “Most Likely”.

I will be asking the same 5 questions each week about my personal top 15 teams concerning their upcoming games. Hopefully, It will be a fun way to preview the games each week. 

Note: Preface each statement with “The team most likely to…”

Get upset (must be a 10+ point line): SOUTH CAROLINA – I really wish that I had Wisconsin in my top 15 because that would be the easy pick here, but since they aren’t I am going to have to go with the Gamecocks.  They are playing ECU this week and I've seen what ECU can do early in the season against the big boys.  This could be a possible game to keep an eye on. 

Pull the starters in the 2nd quarter:  FLORIDA STATE - This is an easy one this week with FSU playing Savannah State who lost to OSU last week by  84. 

Look worse than their ranking: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA – They are flying across country and will be playing at 11:30 AM PST.  Syracuse is coming off of a rough loss and will be hyped for this game.  USC will lose ground this week to Oregon in the rankings. 

Look better than their ranking: GEORGIA – People are thinking that Mizzou will be out for blood this week against the Dawgs, but I think Georgia impresses this week and shows everyone that they are the team to beat in the SEC East.

Climb into the top 15: OKLAHOMA STATE – While I really don’t see anyone falling out of the top 15 this week, if anyone does OSU will be there to take their spot.  I see them winning big against Arizona.  If one team were to fall out, it might be Nebraska with having to go to UCLA and already being on the cusp at #14.  

Check out my week 2 picks here!

Picks: Week 2

After a mediocre start to the season, going 2 for 4 in my high confidence picks and 3 for 8 overall, I’m looking to get back on track this week.  The way this works is that I have to pick all matchups between top 25 teams, all conference matchups in the ACC and Big 12 and then I can fill in with whatever other games interest me.  I have to pick a minimum of 8 games per week.  Once the season get rolling there will be significantly more each week.  Also I pick all games against the spread and straight up. 

I will star 4 picks each week that I would “bet” if I had the money.  These are my confidence picks and I will track them throughout the year.  Finally, I will also keep a record of my straight up picks in ACC, Big12 and top 25 games.  

Standings as of last week:

Confidence Picks: 2-2

ACC: 2-0
BIG12: 0-0
TOP25: 2-0

Here we go:

* North Carolina -10.5 over Wake Forest – North Carolina looked like they had their act together last week against Elon, while Wake struggled against Liberty.  Liberty is probably a slightly better team, but we are talking FCS here and a 62 point margin vs. a 3 point margin. I know this is the ACC and anything can happen on any week but I still think that this is an easy one, UNC wins running away. 

* Oklahoma State -10.5 over Arizona – At the rate OkState scores, the chances of this game being 10 points or closer seems very slim to me.  I could see Arizona challenging for the first half, but I think OSU pulls away at the end and stretches this to 2 or 3 scores with a few late TDs.

Penn State +10 over Virginia – I will give UVA the edge in this game straight up, but I think that Penn State fights back after getting embarrassed last week and makes this game closer than people expect.

Duke +15 over Stanford – I will ride the Duke train all year if I can.  I think that this team will play great against a Stanford team that struggled last week.  Stanford will pull away at the end, but win by less than 2 scores. 

Texas A&M +1 over Florida – This game has been hovering around EVEN for most of the week and I think that’s where it should be.  The real question here is if the cancellation of last week’s game for A&M will make them not ready for SEC play.  But then again, I don’t think a Florida team that struggled against Bowling Green will be able to really show true SEC football.  I think the home crowd gives the Aggies the edge in this one.  They win a close one.

* Georgia -2 over Missouri – I am high on Georgia this year and since I picked them to run the table in the regular season, I will pick them here.  While I think Mizzou will come out strong, they are just not ready for SEC football and will be outmatched by UGA. 

* Michigan -21 over Air Force – I am putting my money where my mouth is on this one in saying that Michigan will bounce back from the Alabama game and will have a great season after all.  I think Denard gets his act together and UM wins big in the Big House.

Kansas State -7 over Miami (FL) – Collin Klein will take care of business at home against Miami.  I don’t think that the Hurricanes have the weapons to score with KState or the defense to stop them.  I mean, they gave up 32 to Boston College… The Wildcats cover.  

Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech Reaction

I don’t understand how a team can leave such a sweet taste in my mouth, while looking so terrible.  But, for the first time that I can remember, Virginia Tech didn’t choke in the clutch! And because of that, I have reason for optimism as we head into week 2.  While there are so many things to be concerned of moving forward, I am extremely excited about this team and ready to see us bounce back extremely well as the season progresses. 

In the spirit of irrational optimism, here are some of the things that impressed me about this Hokies team. 

(1) The entire defense looked incredible.  If you look back at the game, the first TD was scored on a short field.  While I would have loved to see them held a FG there, I give the D a pass here.  The FG drive was against a tired defense which had been on the field for over 10 minutes of the 3rd quarter.  But they stiffened up when it mattered and kept them out of the end zone.  Finally, the last TD drive was somewhat of a concern and should have been stopped several times.  Even still, I’m impressed and look forward to how good this D can be.  They held the #2 rushing offense from last year to under 200 yards! That's incredibly done!

(2) Special teams looked promising.  I know there was a missed FG and a botched snap/catch/punt.  However, other than that, there were no mistakes.  I have full faith in Journell and think that Hughes might be the best punter around VT in a while.   Remember the 19 yd. punts last year and having a WR handle punting duties? Yeah… this is better. 

(3) Discipline.  There were very few penalties in the game, no turnovers, very few stupid mistakes, and several clutch performances (Fullers, Thomas, Journell).  This is so un-Hokie-like and a good sign moving forward.

(4) The running game looks promising.  I know we had less than 100 yds rushing, but we would have had 22 more yards without the botched punt.  I think Logan will put together a nice season running the ball and Michael Holmes / JC Coleman looked like they belonged in the backfield.  Coleman looked like a young David Wilson / change of pace back and Holmes looks like he can handle the bulk of the duties and run between the tackles. 

Go ahead, tell me I’m being way to optimistic, I don’t care!  This is our year!

Check out my reaction to my picks here.